An email alarm from our display NEM-Watch alerted me to the AEMO Market Notice issued this afternoon about the looming tight supply/demand balance for South Australia and Victoria:
- For Summer 2016-17 in South Australia; and
- For Summer 2017-18 in both South Australia and Victoria (i.e. following the closure of Hazelwood at the end of Q1 2017).
The full text of the Notice is here:
Given our ongoing interest in the supply/demand balance, I opened one of the older widgets in ez2view (PASA) to have a look at the magnitude of the shortfall for each of the regions – firstly for South Australia, and then Victoria:
Flipping the display to look at Victoria, we see how Victoria turns to deficit for selected summer periods in summer 2017-18, showing the significant effect the closure of Hazelwood will have on the supply/demand balance:
For a final view of the Victorian situation we use one of the newer widgets in ez2view (Forecast Convergence) and see how successive forecasts of Surplus Capacity (forecasts published every week over the prior 2 years) have changed:
The change in MT PASA following the Hazelwood closure announcement stands out starkly.