Tag Archives: New South Wales

Article: Reviewing the pattern of spot prices for Q2 2018 suggests that we’re far from out of the woods, yet

Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.

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Article: Recapping a shaky week for the supply-demand balance in the NSW region last week (Mon 4th June to Fri 8th June 2018)

The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.

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Article: Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)

A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.

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Article: A timely reminder of the need for *much* more diversity in wind harvest patterns

Alerted by our NEMwatch dashboard, I delve into the data and see a scary degree of correlation between the (very low) output of wind farms in south-east South Australia, and (similarly low) output from newer wind farms in northern NSW.

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Article: It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!

Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.

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Article: Hot weather sees NSW demand at 13,000MW and NEM-wide demand above 31,000MW

A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high

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Article: NSW demand currently forecast to peak up at 13,500MW on Tuesday 19th December

Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).

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Article: Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)

AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.

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Article: “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria stopped short of 8,500MW today (lower than forecast) but the demand peak forecast for NSW tomorrow has grown to almost 13,000MW

Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.

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Article: Electricity demand set to climb in NSW on Thursday with the hot weather forecast

With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.

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