Tag Archives: Forecast Convergence

Article: A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand

AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.

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Article: Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….

Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.

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Article: Collective skittishness about South Australia?

With high temperatures forecast for SA (hence higher demand) coinciding with low wind, social media references to “blackout” increase. Is this helpful?

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Article: Examining why Pelican Point didn’t bid full capacity into the NEM on Wednesday 8 February

Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding eventuated).

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Article: [Post 2] Later AEMO forecasts moderate demand forecasts slightly – but still looks to be massive

Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.

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Article: AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture

Here’s an update on the situation in NSW

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Article: Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017

A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.

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Article: Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire

Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.

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Article: AEMO notes low reserve conditions for SA (this summer and next) and in Victoria (next summer)

After an AEMO notice of Low Reserve Condition this summer and next in the south, I had a quick look…

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