As noted a couple of weeks ago, the peak demand this winter actually fell outside of the bounds of what we called “Winter” for our competition.
This is because we launched the competition a bit late into the season, so had to limit the relevant period in fairness to all.
As a result, we used a bit of artistic licence in determining that the peak NEM-Wide Demand this “winter” was only 31,873MW.
– hence Winter 2009 was a fizzer
This figure was well below both:
1) the massive peak experienced summer just passed, and
2) the major peak in demand experienced in winter 2008.
In summary, peak demand in winter 2009 was 2,500-3,500MW below what had been experienced in winter 2008 and summer 2008-09. A very mild outcome.
How did this match with everyone’s forecasts?
Recall that we previously analysed the range of entries we received, and showed a wide range of variation.
Given how modest the demand actually was, it’s not really a surprise that majority of the forecasts submitted were well above what the demand turned out to be. What surprises me more, however is that the bulk of the forecasts at the 90% probability of excedence level, as shown in this chart, were above 33,500MW – hence well above what the demand turned out to be.
Hence is seems that “the market” (if that is a term that could loosely describe those who participate in our competition) is gradually gaining precision in terms of its forecasts (if we compare to what happened in summer 2008-09), but still has a little way to go…
So, stop blabbering and tell me who won?
Alright, alright – without further ado, the winner appears to be Andrea Prouse of EnergyAustralia (whose 90% POE entry of 32,450MW was only 577MW above the declared maximum demand for winter 2009).
For those who will be involved in the bidding for EnergyAustralia, when it gets to the block – note that they have the best demand forecaster in the NEM resident, and sharpen your pencils!
We will contact Andrea shortly and liaise with her about her specific choice of prize.
Note we have been reading up about that other domain in the meantime, to ensure we can deliver the best.
Thanks everyone who entered – and remember that summer 2009-10 is only a couple of months away. Stay tuned for the next round of the competition – and make sure you are up and running with NEM-Watch in the meantime!
As a PS to my post above, Andrea has requested we make a donation, instead, to her favourite charity, the Permaculture Research Institute, which we were very pleased to do.
Andrea explains:
In that we’re firmly focused on making the world a better place, in our own small way (by making the electricity market more understandable – hence facilitating greater efficiencies, higher long-term sustainability and lower prices) we’re more than happy to help Andrea in this way.