A Quick Tour of the 2021 ESOO
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes an initial look at some of the highlights included in the AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities for 2021 (a 10-year forecast for what might unfold in the future of the NEM).
No front page media horror stories for AEMO’s 2021 ESOO!
The AEMO’s 2021 ESOO was released this morning. Here’s where you can get it, and some of the articles written about it.
New low mark for production from brown coal on Saturday 28th August 2021
Following comments on social media over the weekend about a new low point for brown coal generation, I took a quick look.
ESB’s Final (or perhaps not so final?) Advice to Energy Ministers finally sees the light of day!
On Thursday 26th August 2021 (a little over 4 weeks after it was provided to the Energy Ministers by the Energy Security Board), the ESB’s Final Advice to Energy Ministers has been publicly released.
Biggest price shock in history
Carl Daley of EnergyByte, examines recent energy and gas price volatility, leading to the conclusion that the May to July period in QLD and NSW has been the biggest shock to the spot market in history, and the forward price movements are rivalling the record setting year of 2007.
Low wind production (inside NSW+QLD) was one other factor contributing to price volatility in Q2 2021
As Q2 2021 unfolded, it seemed that there were many instances where prices spiked during evening demand peaks – and that wind output was low at the time. So I took a closer statistical look…
A quick look at the generator bids across Sunday 23rd August 2021 (when Solar temporarily eclipsed Coal)
Prompted by reports elsewhere of solar PV production eclipsing coal-fired production on Sunday for a period of time, I had a quick look (including at aggregate bid volumes).
What happened at each of the DUIDs impacted by the ‘Q>>NIL_CLWU_RGLC’ constraint equation on Sunday 24th January 2021 (Part 5)
It’s now seven months since the SCADA outage on Sunday 24th January 2021 – and we’re finally able to complete and publish this (quite long) article exploring some of the implications for units on the LHS of the ‘Q>>NIL_CLWU_RGLC’ constraint equation
AEMC launches two related reviews into the framework for Transmission Development
A brief weekend note about two initiatives commenced by AEMC on Thursday 19th August 2021 – both related to transmission development.
AEMO identifies Power System Oscillations in ‘Polygon of Pain’ (Briefing Session – Wednesday 25th August)
A short note from AEMO’s weekly newsletter – about power system oscillations in west Murray region (VIC/NSW)
NEM-wide minimum demand (in winter) drops lower on Sunday 15th August 2021 … and Renewables Share in VIC higher
Sunday 15th August saw lowest level of Operational Demand in the NEM for a winter period, NEM-wide. This also led to a number of other outcomes (including higher renewable penetration, negative prices, … and chatter on social media).
A list of (some of) the factors contributing to the volatile price outcomes seen in Q2 2021 – particularly QLD and NSW
Prompted by last Friday’s publication of the AER’s ‘Wholesale Markets Quarterly’ for Q2 2021, here’s a tabulated summary of some of the contributing factors of spot price volatility (and hence high average prices) for the quarter – particularly for QLD and NSW.
Do you know what’s causing some increased latency on P5MIN data files on MarketNet in recent weeks (Potential Tripwire #4)?
Re-posted with update: In recent weeks we have noticed a trend towards increased latency in the creation of the ‘PUBLIC_P5MIN_*.csv’ files published by AEMO on MarketNet, and we wonder if you can help us understand why this is happening?
Explosion at Eskom’s Medupi Unit 4 in South Africa at 22:50 on Sunday 8th August 2021
Hydrogen explosion in South Africa (at Eskom’s Medupi unit) will inevitably draw comparisons to the explosion at Callide C4 on 25th May 2021. Use caution in following those links!
Power system stress – with record demand and insufficient supply in New Zealand on Monday 9th August 2021
Following a tight supply-demand balance in New Zealand on a winter Monday evening 9th August 2021, leading to unserved energy, here’s a quick review of what information I could find.
Fire at ‘Victoria Big Battery’ as food for thought in relation to battery chemistry
Some quick thoughts, spurred by Simon Hackett’s comment in relation to the fire at the Victorian Big Battery
Fire at Victoria Big Battery under control – Monday 2nd August 19:21
One Monday evening article noting reports that the fire at Victoria Big Battery is under control.
Fire continues at Victoria Big Battery into Monday morning (10:42am)
Monday’s update on the fire at the new ‘Victoria Big Battery’ – which seems to have mostly come under control by the afternoon.
Victoria Big Battery still burning on Sunday morning 1st August 2021
A short update on Sunday 1st August 2021, about the continuing fire at the Victoria Big Battery.
$1.5b write-down in value of assets at Origin Energy
On Thursday 30th July 2021 Origin Energy announced a large impairment on several different types of assets – its own generation portfolio, renewable PPAs, and gas purchase contracts. However the focus in the media sometimes did not include all three…