Generator Report Card 2018 – with data to 31st December 2018

Particularly growing through 2017 and 2018, we have observed (and sometimes been involved in) a number of parallel discussions about various aspects of Power Station Performance – with some discussions being private, and others being public.

Hence, late in September 2018 we resolved to compile an extensive Generator Report Card that will cover all power stations across the NEM, no matter what their fuel type or technology.  We are working with a range of third parties (as noted below) to do all of this.

The Generator Report Card will be finalized and released early in 2019, and we’ll post more about it at that time.  However those who are happy to pre-order now can save on the final price for the report (joining a steadily growing number of people who already have), and ensure they are amongst the first to receive their copy when it is ready.

We would welcome your suggestions here about other questions (and metrics), remembering to provide us a phone number we can reach you on if we have questions about your suggestions.

(A)  Structure of the Generator Report Card

The following is an overview of the structure of the Generator Report Card

Brief explanation of the content
Part 1 – Executive Summary When all the sections below are finished, we’ll summarize the main insights from the hundreds of pages below into something that will give you a general sense of what’s covered within.
Part 2 – Key Insights Our expanded team of analysts (from Greenview Strategic Consulting, Global-Roam and others that will be noted below) are well down the path of drawing out a range of Key Insights from the data sets assembled on technical, commercial, environmental and other performance.

These are being assembled under Themes (such as about the energy transition that’s underway) in order to help readers see the woods for the trees.

This is looking like being about 40 pages, when completed.

Part 3 – Results by Generator In this section of the report, we will be presenting (separately) individual results for key metrics for every generator across the NEM.  To paint the complete picture for storage systems (pumped hydro and batteries) we are also including the relevant data on the scheduled load components.

With one page per generator, this will be around 200 pages long.

Part 4 – Aggregated Results In this section, we’re aggregating results in a number of ways in order to draw out other insights:

  • We’re aggregating geographically (e.g. for the whole of the NEM, and by region);
  • We’re aggregating by fuel type; and
  • We’re aggregating by portfolio where it makes sense – such as in relation to rebidding behaviours, as discussed here.
Part 5 – Glossary We’ve compiled an extensive glossary of the different metrics used in the development of the Generator Report Card.
Various Appendices Where we see that it will help the readers, we are developing a number of focused Appendices that will explain specific details.

The outline above has been provided as a general guide with the final structure of the report card still evolving as it comes together.

(B)  Status of the Generator Report Card

In reverse chronological order, the following are some updates on the status of the report:

Early in 2019

(current ETA is April 2019)

We are aiming to have this report delivered in Q1 2019, with data current to 31st December 2018.   At this point electronic copies will be provided to those clients who have pre-purchased a copy.

Our prime focus is on the delivery of a quality product – one that will take big strides in answering the range of questions alluded to above.  As such, we won’t be bound to any particular release date for the Generator Report Card 2018.

We are aware, however, that some of the data (and the insights) in the report will be of time sensitive nature.  Hence there is an incentive for us to get this to you as soon as possible (we also know we won’t be paid until we have done this).

At the time of release, we will set a final price for the report – which will apply for those who have opted not to pre-order the report.  We are not currently focused on what that final price might be – however we are clear that the value the report will deliver (when we have investigated  concerns such as those listed above) will be considerably more than the pre-order rates noted below.  

Others articles in Q1? If we have time to post other articles directly relevant to the Generator Report Card in the next month or so, we will endeavour to remember to link them in here.
Wednesday 13th February 2019 We posted this preliminary review of the Quantity and Quality of Rebids across all portfolios, and over the entire history of the NEM.

There are a number of insights that are particularly intriguing at a power station and portfolio level that we will be drawing out in several sections of the Generator Report Card.

Friday 8th February 2019 In response to the inclusion of some data on outages and availability of the AGL Energy generation portfolio, published in their half-yearly results, we posted this quick comparison for Loy Yang A, Bayswater and Liddell using data assembled for use by our team of analysts in the compilation of our Generator Report Card.
Monday 7th January 2019 We posted this article to highlight how we were analyzing the trend in the distribution of Off-Target for individual generators in order to see what might be seen about one aspect of what makes the AEMO’s job challenging in real time (i.e. generators not meeting expectations).

In that post, we noted how this might be for several reasons:
Reason 1 = units sometimes trip
Reason 2 = units sometimes fail to start
Reason 3 = sometimes forecasting output falls down a little, in terms of what we’d like it to be (for semi-scheduled plant)
Reason 4 = sometimes behaviours seem odd –  in response to pricing signals, but opposite to what had been offered in a generator’s bids.

1st Jan 2019 On 1st January 2019 we posted this article that spoke about the data compilation process having begun in earnest (with data to 31st December 2018).  The article discussed:
(a)  The three main components of work we are undertaking in sequence;
(b)  Shared an early insight about the prevalence of DUIDs affected by bound constraint equations; and
(c)  Communicated the discount still available for pre-orders with this order form until the release of the report (report now only $1,600 ex GST).

In that post we noted some early insights about how the percentage of DUIDs subject to constraints is somewhere between 30% and 50% (up to 200 DUIDs affected each month).

Monday 19th November 2018 On Monday 19th November, we emailed out to our broader contact list in order to ensure that everyone was aware of the ability to pre-orders the report (before 31st December 2018) and hence not miss out on the initially discounted rate, along with the ability to feed into the analytical process.
Monday 29th October 2018 On Monday 29th October, we posted this article to alert our WattClarity readers to the development of our Generator Report Card, and to welcome pre-orders for the report at an initial low rate (only $900 ex GST).

We flagged coverage of concerns about a range of different aspects of generator performance:
Q1)  There are concerns that existing thermal generators are becoming less reliable.
Q2)  There are claims that intermittent supplies are becoming increasingly constrained.
Q3)  There is an awareness (though perhaps belatedly sometimes) that Marginal Loss Factors can, and do, vary significantly over time.
Q4)  Also there are concerns about the revenues being earned, and input costs being paid, by different types of generators
Q5)  There are certainly some diverse perspectives, including some misconceptions, about bidding behaviour.
Q6)  We’ve received an increasing number of queries relating to which generators have been involved in setting the price, and with what frequency – despite the multi-dimensional nature of these questions which those who ask us might not be aware of, or overlook.

late September 2018 Late September 2018, we commenced the compilation of a range of Key Performance Indicators relevant to various aspects of generator performance – importantly focusing on metrics for which there would be NEM-wide availability of data relevant to the calculation and trending of those KPIs.

In doing this, we engaged a number of third parties to contribute to our KPI identification process.

Check back at this page for updates as the report comes together…..

(C)  Pre-orders welcome now, before the report is released

For those who trust that we will deliver high quality, extensive analysis in the Generator Report Card 2018 (even whilst our process is still underway) we offer you the benefit of getting in first to ensure that you have your electronic copy made available to you.

Order here now – to pay by credit card when the report is delivered to you.

 

(D)  Brought to you by…

This project is being brought to you principally by two partner organisations:

Global-Roam Pty Ltd We’re a software company that has been focused on making complexity understandable in the energy sector since 2000 – primarily in Australia, and with particular focus on the National Electricity Market.

We’ve done this primarily through a range of licensed software products, but also through a range of other ways  – such as:

  • with WattClarity® (our freely accessible commentary site); and
  • a growing number of bite-sized web widgets; and
  • now with a Generator Report Card 2018 as part of a WattClarity Deeper Insights service.
Greenview Strategic Consulting Greenview Strategic Consulting was formed to provide specialist market advice to energy, government and community organisations in the complex domain of energy and critical infrastructure.

Utilising GVSC’s core values, Dedication, Integrity and Creativity, they pride themselves on tackling every project with a solution-focused approach, providing practical advice and value added implementations to meet their client’s requirements through the use of:

  • Contemporary knowledge of NEM participant operations
  • Specialist NEM knowledge in generation, transmission and market dynamics
  • Effective communication; able to explain complex power system dynamics at all levels of understanding
  • Information and Data Management specialists to assist clients to develop critical insights, especially around critical infrastructure resilience

In addition, we are also utilising the services of other experts in the field.  More details of these parties will be revealed over time…