AEMO releases ‘Quarterly Energy Dynamics’ for Q4 2020
Quite a synergistic coincidence today that, at the same time as we are finalizing the release of the GSD2020, we see the AEMO publishes its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q4 2020.
Read MoreSpring 2020 in the NEM
A collection of articles discussing events that occur (or are forecast to occur) through spring 2020 in the NEM
Surprise LOR2 (Low Reserve Condition) forecast for QLD next Monday afternoon, 30th November 2020
Prompted by an SMS alert this evening, we take a look at the tight supply/demand balance currently forecast for the QLD region on Monday afternoon next week (30th Nov 2020).
More pain ahead for non-synchronous units … a bigger ‘rhombus of regret’ in western NSW & VIC
From tomorrow (Fri 20th Nov) market participants in south-western NSW and north-western VIC will need to grapple with yet another transmission constraint seeking to ‘constraint down’ their output when it’s sunny and/or windy. This one is named ‘N^^N_NIL_3’.
An evolving perspective – forecast impacts of the South Australia short, sharp ‘Circuit Breaker’ COVID response
Some brief notes about the impact that South Australia’s ‘Stay at Home’ order might have on demand in the region.
Price spikes in QLD region third day in a row (Tue 17th Nov 2020)
Third day in a row, and at exactly the same time as yesterday (Mon 17th Nov) the dispatch price in QLD spiked through the roof. Here’s a quick first look…
Early blast of summer drives NSW and QLD prices through the roof
It’s not officially summer, yet – but it sure seems like it is across QLD and NSW. High temperatures drive some prices spiking up to the Market Price Cap in both ENERGY and some FCAS commodities as well…
Case Study Part 5 – Why did those constraint bind – in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
In part 5 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a detailed look at the constraint set ‘Q-BCNE_821’ invoked to deal with the transmission outage between H11 Nebo (in ‘North’ zone) and H10 Bouldercombe (in ‘Central-West’ zone)
Low point for demand in Victoria drops still lower on Sunday 1st November 2020
The prior record for ‘minimum demand’ in Victoria seems to have only lasted 8 short weeks, with the level nudged still lower on a sunny Sunday 1st November 2020 (coincident with a bit more freedom for Victorians after lockdown).
Brief note about NSW price spike on Friday 23rd October 2020
Winding down through Beer O’clock at the end of a long week with the team and the buzzing of my phone distracts to a few successive price spikes this afternoon in the NSW Region: Here’s a snapshot of the 16:00…
Case Study Part 4 – Who did What – in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick look at what happened at most of the QLD generators through this 10:00 trading period.
Case Study Part 3 – digging still deeper, about what happened in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020
In part 3 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we dig deeper to explore… including wondering whether it would have been expected in advance.
Case Study Part 2 – did Rooftop PV kill Large Solar Farm output (and cause the price spike) in QLD on Tuesday 13th October 2020?
Based on some preliminary analysis of the Powerlink’s ‘Qdata’ set (available in ez2view) we present our current hypothesis as to the sequence of the events yesterday in the QLD region, where 600MW of solar generation was lost, causing the price to spike to MPC.
Case Study part 1 – Queensland price spikes to $15,000/MWh at 09:45 on Tuesday 13th October 2020 … coincident with many Large Solar Farms (tripping**)
Alerted to a price spike at 09:45 this morning in the QLD region, we discovered some reduction in load (spot-exposed Demand Response probably) and also a large collective trip in Solar Farm output (reasons unclear).
The decline to zero continues… SA demand and whole-of-NEM both drop even lower on Sunday 11th October 2020
Records continue to tumble in the off-season, with the rise of rooftop PV. Both South Australia and Whole-of-NEM hit new low points Sun 11th October 2020.
Rooftop PV drives daytime Scheduled Demand even lower than the low point a month ago … lowest level in 16 years on Sunday 27th September 2020
A month on from the prior low point seen for Scheduled Demand (and Operational Demand) across Queensland in the middle of the day, the low point mark is driven lower still on Sunday 27th September 2020.
New minimum point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia on Sunday 13th September 2020
Hot on the heels of a new record low point for Scheduled Demand (a week ago) in VIC, today sees Scheduled Demand in SA plunge to 315MW in the 11:50 dispatch interval on Sunday 13th September 2020.
Scheduled Demand in VIC drops to record low on Sunday 6th September 2020
Within the same 24 hour period as California again feels the stresses of its own extremes, we see that Victoria experiences the other side of this energy transition challenge, with a new record low for Scheduled Demand set for *any* time of the day…. in the middle of the afternoon!