Questions from several readers prompted this quick look at the long-term trend of coal generation.Read More
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Prompted by what I’d seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what’s been apparent over time.
A brief look at what’s been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm – over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near zero.
An article today providing links to the ‘Renewable Integration Study’ which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Some brief initial thoughts, following the release of two discussion papers by the COAG Energy Council – the first on two-sided markets, and the second seeming to cover two different challenges (forward markets, and ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’).
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
Guest author, Allan O’Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what’s being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Another weekend reviewing progress on the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (nearing completion) and I thought it would be of interest to share some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 that jump of the sample page provided to us in yesterday’s draft.
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
Guest author (and power system control specialist), Kate Summers, looks at what’s changed since she published a paper on frequency control in the NEM back in January 2017.
An email alert from NEMwatch (noting Scheduled Demand under 500MW in South Australia today) distracts us, and prompts us to dig a little deeper at the longer-term trend.
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what’s seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently – particularly in QLD. Coupled with this we’ve seen various commentary on social media. Hence we took a more statistical look at what’s actually been changing…
AEMO releases its Electricity Statement of Opportunities today, with an initial flurry of press coverage. Another reminder of heightened risk that the NEM is increasingly facing…
AGL released its investor presentation yesterday – several people flagged the availability stats within the presentation (they knew we were looking at aspects of reliability for our Generator Report Card 2018). Hence I take a brief detour and have a quick look.
Guest author, Tristan Edis, takes a look at the changing pattern of generation by fuel type in 2018
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.