In order to help us (internally) map out all the different threads to explore in terms of what happened on Friday 31st January 2020 on a remarkable day in the NEM, I’ve identified a few of the key threads here over the weekend. More articles to follow as time permits….
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
Published at 12:02, this is a view looking forward to the expected (very high) peak in electricity demand across the NEM this evening.
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
A quick look (ahead of time) at what looks set to be a very high level of electricity demand right across the NEM tomorrow evening, Friday 31st January 2020. Just in time for the Australian Open semi-finals.
It was first day back after a couple days away yesterday – and I am mostly focused on completing the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (for a scheduled release next week,…
A quick article with the unfolding situation this afternoon in Victoria – tight supply/demand balance, price spike to the Market Price Cap, and RERT negotiations ….
A short note looking at forecast for Victoria today, Monday 30th December (coincidentally as Loy Yang A2 came offline on Friday evening).
With the return of Mortlake unit 2 this week, we take a quick look at current forecasts for the week and quarter ahead in Victoria.
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
Noticed that Loy Yang A2 is back online today, so worth a short note.
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we’ll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies this summer, especially in the Victorian region.
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability…
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
Yesterday I noted what appeared to be trips of two solar farms – Gannawarra and Karadoc – within a single dispatch interval and coincident with a period of volatile prices. Also yesterday, Dylan McConnell flagged a drop in output at the brown coal plant around the same time, with some questions. With the benefit of access to yesterday’s bids, today I have a look at the 5 power stations (pending a broader review next week by guest author, Allan O’Neil).
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.