The day is not over yet, but we thought you would be interested in the attached snapshot highlighting the first of the occasions on the day when prices jumped to VOLL in SA and VIC as a result of searing temperatures stopping the tennis, and melting VIC and SA into new demand records for each region.
On 19th January, high prices were sustained in SA for several hours, bringing the Cumulative Price within a whisker of the $150,000 threshold, at which prices would be capped.
We watched with interest today as demand crept up in all mainland regions to the point where the NEM-Wide demand rose slightly above 33,000MW for the first time ever, during a summer period.
An overview of the final range of estimates received for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
Given that the holidays are now over (for most of us) and we’re returning back to “normal” life, we thought it would be a good time to provide a brief overview of what’s happened in terms of NEM-Wide demand, to date.
NSW experienced a record summer demand on Thursday 15th January, driven by high temperatures across the state. The extreme weather experienced in NSW followed the extreme weather that swept across South Australia and Victoria only two days beforehand.
Just as had been forecast, Tuesday 13th January 2009 saw hot, dry weather roll in across South Australia, and then into Victoria. The high temperatures caused demand to climb, but not to the level at which NEMMCO had forecast demand to climb over the summer period. As a result we saw the price in SA jump to a level near VOLL at 13:40, and remain there until about 18:00 (i.e. more than 4 hours).
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. For January we revisit events such as the fires at Moomba in 2004 (which curtailed gas supplies from central Australia); and the blackout on 16th January 2007 which drove the price to VOLL in Victoria.
High temperatures in Queensland drive demand up on New Year’s Eve.
An overview of the estimates to date for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
Collected articles on the notable events of the summer of 2008-2009.
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2006-2007.
We did not run the competition for summer 2007-08, but we did have, however, some occasions to perform analysis of summer 2007-08.
Guess the peak demand for summer 2008-2009 and win a “Beefmaster Premium 6 on Side Burner Cart” barbeque.
A brief analysis of NEM-wide demand and IRPM during the summer months over the past 4 years.
The great bi-annual peak demand forecasting competition. Prove your forecasting prowess and you could win a great seasonal prize!
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2005-2006.
For the EUAA’s Members Meeting (held in Brisbane on 24th April 2008), our Managing Director was invited to provide of a précis of the presentation he previously provided at the “QLD Energy” conference (on 12th March 2008).
In particular, comments made by Paul with respect to the proposed upgrade to QNI – which was topical at the time of the conference, given that Powerlink and TransGrid had released their analysis of several upgrade options in the same week as the conference.
As a result of the presentation, Duncan Hughes wrote an article about the potential cost to energy users of the upgrade, and published this in the Australian Financial Review on 13th March 2008.
Given the magnitude of the numbers reported, this issue has proved to be of significant issue to large energy users – hence the invitation to present at the Member’s Meeting.
Over the period of summer 2006-07, we prepared a number of articles about other occasions of note in the NEM (in addition to the blackout of 16th January 2007, which…
Our Managing Director was asked to speak at the “Queensland Energy” conference in Brisbane on Wednesday 12th March – specifically addressing the topic of price volatility in the NEM.
To provide the basis of discussion during the conference, we focused our analysis solely on Queensland region (to make the topic more manageable).
In our review of volatility in the Queensland region, we focused specifically on 3 core attributes of the market: Queensland dispatch prices; NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin; and the concept of “Economic Islands”.