Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
In order to help us (internally) map out all the different threads to explore in terms of what happened on Friday 31st January 2020 on a remarkable day in the NEM, I’ve identified a few of the key threads here over the weekend. More articles to follow as time permits….
With the benefit of more data available today, can piece together why there was the sudden drop into LOR2 territory on Saturday 1st February 2020 (something that alarmed me, and resulted in AEMO directing a participant to make capacity – just withdrawn – available again).
I’ve snuck into the office on Saturday to start the process of piecing together some of of the different aspects of what happened yesterday to follow on from Friday evening’s…
Today (Fri 31 January 2020) saw NEM-wide demand reach levels never seen before (excepting 29th January 2009). This was just the start of the white knuckle ride.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
Published at 12:02, this is a view looking forward to the expected (very high) peak in electricity demand across the NEM this evening.
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
Today I managed to get about half-way (only!) through some analysis I wanted to do to ‘scratch that itch’ about what happened in the NSW Region on Thursday 23rd January – with LOR2 conditions necessitating RERT (Reserve Trader) in the NSW Region.
A quick 2nd article today looking at how Reserve Trader was dispatched (and a couple other complexities)
Not looking crash hot for the NSW region this afternoon…
Following yesterday’s dust storms, today’s rain (and hail) also sweep through NSW to dampen production from solar farms – small and large.
All I have time to do today, looking into more detail of what happened today …. but note that the challenge is still unfolding.
A quick summary of what’s just happened this afternoon (15:10) with the separation of VIC-to-NSW interconnector due to bushfires that have been plaguing the NEM this summer…
Taking a brief (well, actually longer than intended) look into the various factors that delivered a price spike above $10,000/MWh on Thursday 31st January in NSW – and thinking through the implications for one particular Demand Response client, and for the broader market.
Following on from Saturday’s islanding event, we use our current interest in AEMO’s 4-second SCADA data to prove a little more…
Looks like being an interesting day on Wednesday next week (14th February 2018) with high temperatures currently forecast for parts of both QLD and NSW
A quick look at the scale of the challenge, if Mt Piper were to be forced to close following a court challenge to coal supplies upstream
Here’s an update on the situation in NSW
… whilst on the topic of load shedding, here’s a warning for NSW on Friday afternoon.