Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
New South Wales
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
Alerted by our NEMwatch dashboard, I delve into the data and see a scary degree of correlation between the (very low) output of wind farms in south-east South Australia, and (similarly low) output from newer wind farms in northern NSW.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
New South Wales recently experienced a severe heatwave, which saw parts of the state exceed 45°C. During this three day period, small solar PV (i.e. PV systems that are not registered as generators in the NEM), generated about 17 GWh of power.
A summary timeline of how last Friday’s “white knuckle ride” in NSW evolved, highlighting key events on the day.
To clarify a quotation today in the Fairfax media about solar PV performance on heatwave Friday in NSW.
Unwanted demand response in NSW approaches, for the 2nd day in a row with scorching temperatures driving demand higher.
First (and perhaps only?) post on a super-hot Saturday in NSW
With many stakeholders nervously looking on this afternoon, demand in NSW peaked at 14,108MW at 5:30pm AEDT.
4th update on this white-knuckle day.
Another update, as NSW demand shoots up towards a new all-time record
2nd quick note in advance of today’s expected new record demand in NSW (and hopefully not load shedding)
A quick look into an anticipated stinker of a day in NSW today