Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
Thursday 10th October 2019 presented another day of many negative price events in the QLD region. In this Case Study (prepared for dual purposes) we look at how one particular solar farm operated through this period – Ross River Solar Farm.
Guest author Allan O’Neil provides this handy explainer on how generators’ contract positions affect their bidding decisions and can make negative spot prices pay off, at least in the short term. Very useful for those readers not actively involved in wholesale trading in helping to understand why some conspiracy theories might not match reality.
Rapidly growing solar PV output has been widely tagged as the cause of low and even negative prices in Queensland. But in any market it’s the behaviour of ALL participants that determines price outcomes. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a closer look at recent NEM bidding.
The run of prices at $0/MWh and below is continuing in Queensland region this week as we pass into spring (many dispatch intervals today down as low as the Market Price Floor at -$1,000/MWh). This begs a few questions…
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what’s seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently – particularly in QLD. Coupled with this we’ve seen various commentary on social media. Hence we took a more statistical look at what’s actually been changing…
A full page article in the FinReview today quotes a number of people (including our work in the Generator Report Card) speaking about heightened risk in the NEM. Coincident with this, we see another instance of negative prices in South Australia (which has become increasingly common) but also something I can’t remember seeing before – an average negative price across the entire day so far!
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
A detailed look at two specific trading periods in the day (Tuesday 24th July 2018) that saw negative dispatch prices occur at the start of trading periods – hence provided a case study for how existing Semi-Scheduled plant respond (especially in combination with transmission constraints and the Semi-Dispatch Cap).
A brief follow on from yesterday’s post, with the advantage of being able to review yesterday’s bids (and rebids) today.
Some further thoughts on what we’ve termed a “Solar Correlation Penalty” which point-view of some specific dispatch intervals seems to suggest is occurring
Some worked examples of how several forms of Demand Response (including the proposed new Demand Response Mechanism) might impact wholesale prices, and participant positions.
A drop in demand exacerbates low holiday demand and high wind to drop the price below zero in SA