In her first article for WattClarity, Marcelle looks at questions raised in the recent summer on the forecasting of performance at high temperatures of wind and solar generators, and asks how AEMO and industry can work together to improve this.
Summer 2019-20 is not yet done, but already we have seen some extremes in temperature in different places – which have led to different concerns. Today I use the GRC2018 and GSD2019 to take a look at what the implications for this actually are.
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
In what seems (to me) to be an extraordinary measure, AEMO speaks directly to the operators of Wind and Solar assets in the NEM, asking them to update the AEMO on the high-temperature limitations of their plant. How did it come to this?…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
Returning to the challenge posed to readers in April 2019, to guess (or analytically determine!) which of the hundreds of units operating in the NEM showed such a severe limitation in output at high temperatures. It’s not what most people thought it was – far from it!
We’re taking a much, much deeper dive into generator performance at high temperatures (for all DUIDs operational across the NEM) to see how each one of them, individually, is affected by high temperatures. Guess which one this “mystery DUID” is and we’d look forward to providing some form of prize…
An AEMO Market Notice about “Generator Recall” for Friday’s forecast hot weather in South Australia and Victoria prompts a quick look at what’s changed in the forecast that would prompt this action.
The first day of scorching summer temperatures for the year has been matched with elevated electricity prices in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia for most of the day. …
Following AEMO’s warnings issued yesterday about possible extreme heat next week in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take more of a look at what might transpire and compare it to historical correlations between cities.
A quick look at AEMO’s current forecasts for Friday (prompted by a few conversations externally)…
A new peak Scheduled Demand and Operational Demand in Queensland today with Scheduled Demand still over 9,100 MW after 8 PM.
Queensland experienced a new record for Scheduled Demand for electricity today – but what’s particular staggering is how late in the day it happened!
Electricity demand in Queensland today reached 9072MW in the 16:40 dispatch interval, passing 9,000MW for the first time this summer.
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.