Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
high regional demand
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
With Queensland temperatures (even at the Brisbane airport) exceeding 40 degrees Celcius today, the electricity demand was also high – though still below the all-time record.
A new peak Scheduled Demand and Operational Demand in Queensland today with Scheduled Demand still over 9,100 MW after 8 PM.
Queensland experienced a new record for Scheduled Demand for electricity today – but what’s particular staggering is how late in the day it happened!
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer
Final post for the day – a high demand level achieved, but not an all-time record.
3rd update today as the supply/demand balance tightens, and a transmission outage adds a complexity
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
AEMO early morning forecast pointing to a new record electricity demand late this afternoon.
An astounding day with Queensland electricity demand on a Sunday – a new peak (according to Powerlink) or not quite (on Dispatch Target basis).
Looking forward to this evening, and what looks set to be a near all-time record for QLD demand (a remarkable outcome for a Sunday)