We watched with interest today as demand crept up in all mainland regions to the point where the NEM-Wide demand rose slightly above 33,000MW for the first time ever, during a summer period.
high NEM-wide demand
An overview of the final range of estimates received for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
Given that the holidays are now over (for most of us) and we’re returning back to “normal” life, we thought it would be a good time to provide a brief overview of what’s happened in terms of NEM-Wide demand, to date.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Analysis of July has revealed that the peak NEM-wide demand for the past 3 years has occurred in winter – and has been significantly higher than the peak summer demand.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of August.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. June has brought us several cases of “economic witholding of capacity” – particularly in 2002, and in 2007 the NEM had a very interesting week in which the IRPM plunged to its lowest level ever.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of May.
An overview of the estimates to date for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2006-2007.
We did not run the competition for summer 2007-08, but we did have, however, some occasions to perform analysis of summer 2007-08.
Guess the peak demand for summer 2008-2009 and win a “Beefmaster Premium 6 on Side Burner Cart” barbeque.
The great bi-annual peak demand forecasting competition. Prove your forecasting prowess and you could win a great seasonal prize!
The results of the peak demand forecasting competition for summer 2005-2006.
It appears that we spoke too soon when we mentioned on the 22nd July that winter 2008 had been relatively uneventful.
Just over 24 hours from making these comments, we saw prices jump sky-high in the mainland regions, and go the other way (to the negative price cap) in Tasmania.
As we have the time, we’ll provide some commentary here about the methods used by the various bodies for “long term” (which in the NEM means 10-years, typically) forecasting. Where…
Our Managing Director spoke at the “Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08” in Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on issues including the extremes of price volatility that were experienced over winter 2007.
Following from an alert to the situation provided by NEM-Watch, Duncan Hughes published an article “Power Price Jump in Eye of the Storm” that mentioned the extremely low levels of NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) that had occurred for a 60-minute period over both days.
Our first review, linked here, was prepared the night of the blackout itself, and provides a chronological history of events, as seen through the NEM-Watch™ application.
Victoria experiences a large blackout in the afternoon and evening of 16 January 2007, when bush fires cause three main transmission lines to trip. This created chaos throughout much of…
There was a temperature-driven spike in demand across the NEM later in the week beginning Sunday 7th January – culminating in the summer’s first demand peak above 30,000MW (on Thursday 11th January).
On this occasion, the spot price spiked above $1000/MWh in Queensland, NSW, Snowy and Victoria,