Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
With high temperatures forecast for SA (hence higher demand) coinciding with low wind, social media references to “blackout” increase. Is this helpful?
Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding eventuated).
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
Here’s an update on the situation in NSW
A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.
Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.
After an AEMO notice of Low Reserve Condition this summer and next in the south, I had a quick look…