2024 Consultation on Forecasting Accuracy Report Methodology
The methodology used to assess performance of AEMO’s longer-term forecasts is under review via the consultation process.
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)
An ESOO snippet – how effective are different technologies at enhancing reliability?
In his second article about the 2023 ESOO, guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look at what the AEMO has published with respect to various options for firming capacity to increase the reliability of aggregate supply to below the two thresholds (the Reliability Standard and the Interim Reliability Standard)
Stock up on candles?
Last Thursday (31st Aug 2023) the AEMO published the ESOO 2023, including forecasts of some possibility of unserved energy in Victoria and South Australia this coming summer 2023-24 (above the Interim Reliability Measure). Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look.
The 2023 ESOO again prompts the question … ‘what’s the contingency plan’?
The 2023 ESOO contains some some reporting (and data) about one particular contingency plan … delaying retirement of existing thermal generators (with Eraring a case in point).
Here’s 7 Observations that jumped out to me in a first skim of the 2023 ESOO
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I’ve invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here’s 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here’s my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy … USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
The 2023 ESOO report shows coal unit EFOR is still a significant factor
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) for coal and large gas units is a large and growing challenge.
The 2023 ESOO report clarifies why the transmission model only includes ‘System Normal’ – and why it’s a simplification
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is has highlighted the set of constraints modelled is only ‘System Normal’.
The 2023 ESOO modelling provides a more accurate real world depiction of Wind Farm limitations at high temperatures
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is now modelling (more accurately) the high temperature degradation on wind farm performance.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that ‘Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge’ in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
AEMO publishes an Update to the 2022 ESOO
On Tuesday 21st February 2023 the AEMO published an update on its 2022 ESOO.
Current expectation for closure dates of Liddell and Eraring Power Stations
Drawing from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022, and the next version of our ez2view software, we take a look at the *current* expectations for closure of Liddell Power Station (within weeks) and Eraring Power Station (in 2025). A segue into this week’s update to the ESOO, perhaps?
South Australia’s Energy Minister triggers the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) for SA in Q1 2026
A release from the AER states that SA’s Minister for Energy and Mining has triggered the RRO (and hence MLO) in South Australia for Q1 2026.
AEMO releases 2022 ESOO on Wednesday 31st August 2022
Here’s where to find the 2022 ESOO – and also what I’ve seen (thus far) of external commentary about what’s revealed and discussed in the ESOO.
Substantially different than a year ago, the 2022 ESOO points to challenges ahead in the supply/demand balance
With the AEMO releasing the 2022 ESOO on Wednesday morning 31st August 2022 with the limited time I have available right now I’ve had a quick look, and in this article highlight some things that jumped out to me.
AEMO releases update to 2021 ESOO following earlier closure announcement for Eraring Power Station
The AEMO published an update to their 2021 ESOO today (Thu 14th April) following some ‘earlier closure’ announcements for Eraring and Bayswater, which also gave the opportunity to study other developments. Here’s some quick thoughts.
Observation 8/22 from GenInsights21–what is the purpose of the ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities)?
We’ve chosen to republish Observation 8 (of 22) within Part 2 of GenInsights21 in this article, to help readers ask that question … what is the purpose of the ESOO?
A Quick Tour of the 2021 ESOO
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes an initial look at some of the highlights included in the AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities for 2021 (a 10-year forecast for what might unfold in the future of the NEM).
No front page media horror stories for AEMO’s 2021 ESOO!
The AEMO’s 2021 ESOO was released this morning. Here’s where you can get it, and some of the articles written about it.
$15,000/MWh in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021 … part 3 (quick thought to the future)
A shorter article – thinking more about the future, prompted by one of the factors that contributed to the price volatility seen in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021