This is the 10th Case Study in a series working through 98 discrete dispatch intervals of extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled events. This Case Study looks at only 1 of 5 occasions of extreme collective OVER-performance.
Articles by Paul McArdle
Some quick notes today, to document high-level data (to be explored later) relating to some significantly depressed solar harvest data today due to the widespread cloud/wind event.
This 9th case study in this series advances us into October 2017, where we see another example of an extreme outcome for collective under-performance. Most notably this happens across 5 Wind Farms (with one unit completely tripping).
This 8th case study in this series presents tabular results for all Semi-Scheduled DUIDs which were operational at the time of the SA System Black event.
This 7th case study in a series takes a look at 1 of 3 dispatch intervals during 2016 that saw extreme under-performance (in aggregate) across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
This 6th case study in a series takes a look at only 1 of 5 Dispatch Intervals featuring over-performance in a total of 98 that saw extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target performance across all Semi-Scheduled plant (rare over-performance and more common under-performance).
For the 5th Case Study in this series (looking at individual outcomes of extremes in aggregate Raw Off-Target performance across all Semi-Scheduled plant) we look at an even rarer time when the aggregate discrepancy was above 400MW. This time collective under-performance.
This morning the AEMO have called for expressions of interest for the ‘Unscheduled Short-Notice RERT’ for summer 2020-21.
After publishing three Case Studies on Saturday, this 4th Case Study in a long series is much more complex – with 8 different Semi-Scheduled Wind Farm units across VIC and SA exhibiting significant deviations from Target. This Case study looks at April 2016, which is also 3 years after the first 3 case studies.
Third case study today – and last one looking back at 2013. This one is a bit more complex than the first two.
Like was the case on 4th July 2013, the cause of this large Aggregate Raw Off-Target result (across all Semi-Scheduled Generators) was a single unit trip.
Does not take long to see why this particular dispatch interval was one of the few dispatch intervals (before 2019!) flagged in our top-down analysis of aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM….
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Following on from Friday’s article (which considered the AER Issues Paper) this article delves into more detail of those extremes of ‘Aggregate Raw Off-Target’ across all Semi-Scheduled units that have been recorded over the past 10 years. There’s a clear clustering of cases in 2019 – what does it mean?
Prompted by the recent AER Issues Paper (submissions on that due today – Friday 24th July) but also aware that I’ve not yet published some broader thoughts in response to the ESB’s requests for input into their Discussion Paper on the Two Sided Market concept, I’ve posted some further thoughts. These have been informed by a longitudinal analysis of Aggregate ‘Raw Off-target’ values across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
A short review, as it happens, on a day where renewable production reached 10,000MW in aggregate across the NEM.
My participation in yesterday’s session about ‘Energy Technology – performing under (heat) stress’, organised by the Australian Institute of Energy, was an opportunity to reflect on what I saw as the Four Headline Events that gave example to a great many challenges we will have to grapple with as this energy (and climate) transition gathers pace.
For several reasons I’ve updated my view of how daily aggregate Underlying Electricity Consumption has been trending across the NEM in this ‘Year of COVID’.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Here’s an attempt to translate the concern underlying the AER Issues Paper into ‘plain English’ via the popular song.