With high temperatures forecast to return to the NEM next week, we take a quick look at the AEMO’s demand forecast.
Articles by Paul McArdle
Some brief analysis, on the sidelines of our data gathering for the Generator Report Card 2018, looking at the changing incidence of Aggregate Absolute Off-Target for DUIDs across the NEM.
Two examples where units (in these cases Semi-Scheduled) appeared to disregard dispatch targets.
One example of where forecasting wind output seemed to be more difficult than we would hope it could be. Something to be further explored in the Generator Report Card.
One example of a thermal unit failing to start. We will endeavour to explore how often this happens as part of the Generator Report Card 2018.
Highlighting one example of a unit trip. We expect we will find many in the process of compiling our Generator Report Card 2018 – the bigger question being whether the incidence is increasing (and, if so, to what extent).
Data compilation of the Generator Report Card is underway, given we’ve stepped over into 2019. Here’s a summary insight about the nature of coverage of bound constraint equations across all units in the NEM.
A quick look at AEMO’s current forecasts for Friday (prompted by a few conversations externally)…
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia – with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
Some thoughts (triggered by the latest wave of focus on “cost” on social media this week) about why we need to rapidly shift our focus to what customers “value” and the market needs.
A quick look at the situation today, where generation in central and northern Queensland was constrained down in the middle of the day, driving prices higher.
A quick first look at the way the AEMO is currently seeing the supply/demand balance for the Queensland region through summer and Q1 2019 – with the “out of left field” possibility of industrial action making it even more interesting.
Some conversations with new generation developers about their prospective developments in northern Queensland has prompted some analysis to help them understand the size of the addressable market for them.
We’ve noted what seems to be an increasing tendency of all of us to reach for some form of “magic wand” as a cure-all for the vexed challenges confronting us in this energy transition.
Replacement of yet another blown LED at home on the weekend prompted me to dive into some historical voltage readings (made accessible through our Solar Analytics subscription). I present some results here, and hope some knowledgeable readers can help me out with 4 Questions I pose…
Temperature forecasts are for hot weather in Queensland early this week – which means AEMO is forecasting high demand in the QLD region. With this, they are alerting on a forecast LOR2 Low Reserve Condition warning. We take a look…
Following from (what we have seen as) an increase in diversity of concerns (and claims) about different aspects of generator performance, we’re leveraging our extensive data set and capabilities to have a deeper look, leading to the publication of a Generator Report Card with data to 31st December 2018. We’d welcome input from those who wish to pre-order their copies now at an initial low rate.
Based on a tip from a savvy WattClarity reader, we have a quick look at what turned out to be the lowest-ever (normal) instance of Scheduled Demand on a dispatch target basis in the South Australian region of the NEM.
Fifteen months after first speaking at Clean Energy Summit about the train wreck that’s ongoing in terms of our mismanaged energy transition (and coincident with another industry gathering in the form of the AFR National Energy Summit), we note about Villain no5 as the next contributor to our transition running off the rails…
A detailed look at two specific trading periods in the day (Tuesday 24th July 2018) that saw negative dispatch prices occur at the start of trading periods – hence provided a case study for how existing Semi-Scheduled plant respond (especially in combination with transmission constraints and the Semi-Dispatch Cap).