Shaky afternoon ahead for the NSW Region of the NEM (as at 12:05 on Thu 23rd Jan 2020)


Have a full agenda ahead (some discussions on ez2view for new clients coming onboard, finishing touches for the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 for release next week, and also some deliveries of new orders of the preceding Generator Report Card 2018) hence don’t have time to go into detail currently – however it is worth noting that it’s looking a bit shaky for the NSW region this afternoon.

Here’s an annotated snapshot from NEMwatch 10 (our ever-popular entry-level dashboard) showing the 11:40 dispatch interval (NEM time) this morning:

2020-01-23-at-11-40-NEMwatch-NSWdemand11566MW-RERTnegotiations

… and here’s the trend of successive forecasts for Scheduled Demand in the AEMO’s P30 predispatch process – seen in tabular format through the ‘Forecast Convergence’ Widget in ez2view:

2020-01-23-at-12-05-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-NSWdemand

Not a good sign that the forecast for demand this afternoon is increasing, with all of the (bushfire-affected) transmission limitations in the area of the Snowy mountains.  I did see this on Twitter, for instance:

2020-01-23-Twitter-CanberraAirportEvacuated

… whilst not in exactly the same location as the main transmission backbone, a reminder of the ongoing difficulties in the area (despite some welcome recent rains in other parts of the country).

Hence it is not really a surprise to see Market Notice 72884 from AEMO speaking of Reserve Trader being negotiated for dispatch if required this afternoon:

MARKET NOTICE 072884
___________________________________________

 Notice ID            72884
Notice Type ID        Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Thursday, 23 January 2020
External Reference        INTENTION TO COMMENCE RERT CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS
___________________________________________

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) Intention to negotiate for additional reserve – NSW1 Region- 23/01/2020

 Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 72883.
AEMO intends to commence negotiations with RERT Panel members for the provision of additional reserve by issuing requests for tender for the following period of time;
11:30 to 20:00 hrs 23/01/2020
If reserve is required, the period of activation or dispatch will be within this period but may not be for the entire period.
AEMO will issue a further advice if reserve is contracted.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

because of the LOR2 Low Reserve Condition forecast for NSW this afternoon.

… and then shortly followed also by Market Notice 72885 speaking of extreme conditions this afternoon in NSW:

___________________________________________

Notice ID            72885
Notice Type ID        Subjects not covered in specific notices
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Thursday, 23 January 2020
External Reference        Market reporting for forecast extreme temperature in the New South Wales region on 23/01/2020
___________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures for New South Wales region that are equal to or greater than the Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures.

On 23/01/2020: Maximum forecast temperature 42 degrees C at Bankstown for the Sydney area.

AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating plants are located and,
2. if required, update the generation levels in their dispatch offers consistent with the forecast temperatures.

Details on Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures can be accessed using the following link to AEMO website:
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Generation-Information

Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:

QUEENSLAND – BRISBANE AREA 37 degrees C.
NEW SOUTH WALES – SYDNEY AREA 42 degrees C.
VICTORIA – MELBOURNE AREA 41 degrees C.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA – ADELAIDE AREA 43 degrees C.
TASMANIA – GEORGE TOWN 30 degrees C.
BASSLINK- (Latrobe Valley Airport 43 degrees C AND GEORGE TOWN 33 degrees C)

AEMO Operations

I hope that (with the recent deliver of ‘slap over the knuckles’ letters from the AER to some operators of Semi-Scheduled plant that were asleep at the wheel previously) the AEMO receives the response they require to help keep the lights on in this instance!

Hold onto your hats…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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