A (Much) Deeper Dive into Friday March 1 2019
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
2019
The Network Investment Paradox
Guest author, Drew Donnelly, compares case studies of Argentine and Australia to highlight risks in under and over-investment in network infrastructure
The death* of “baseload” and rise of “cycling”
A quick article highlighting how the trend in aggregate number of unit starts, across the whole of the NEM, highlights the scale of one of the core underlying changes (and challenges) facing us in the NEM’s energy transition.
Some thoughts about Demand Response, in parallel with AEMC deliberations
A collection of thoughts that have been bumping around in my head for some time about the latest push by various parties to facilitate a broader range of demand response in the NEM, and whether there are better options
Villain #6c – Demand Response is not a magic wand
A note of caution, that Demand Response is not a magic wand – it *can* achieve a lot, but if can’t be assumed to automatically appear to bridge any gap between supply and demand in a market model, for instance.
Villain #5d – obsessing about Negawatts, when the real objective is (broader) Demand Response
One more example of not focusing on the real problems seems to be a tendency for some to obsess about one narrow type of Demand Response (i.e. dispatch of NegaWatts) whilst seeming to lose focus of what the overall objective is (a more active and responsive demand side).
A brief look back at reactions to negative prices in the 14:30 trading period on Friday 1st March 2019
Yesterday I noted what appeared to be trips of two solar farms – Gannawarra and Karadoc – within a single dispatch interval and coincident with a period of volatile prices. Also yesterday, Dylan McConnell flagged a drop in output at the brown coal plant around the same time, with some questions. With the benefit of access to yesterday’s bids, today I have a look at the 5 power stations (pending a broader review next week by guest author, Allan O’Neil).
Price volatility in VIC and SA on Friday 1st March
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
Lessons Learnt from Amber’s first summer of Spot Exposure in the NEM
Now that summer 2018-19 has passed, we can reflect on our experiences as a new entrant energy services company facilitating spot exposure for residential energy users – and hence expanding the scope for Demand Response in the NEM.
A (preliminary) Intermediate Guide to How Prices are Set in the NEM
In the process of assembling a long-range data set on how much every single generator has contributed to the price of Energy in each Region of the NEM (which we’re doing for our Generator Report Card 2018) we’ve pulled some preliminary analysis together here of how many dispatch intervals since 1st January 2018 see the Price Setter files highlight instances of setting the price ranging:
from “Very Simple” (at Category 1)
… to “Very Complex” (at Category 5)
It’s heating up, in Victoria and South Australia for Friday 1st March
An AEMO Market Notice about “Generator Recall” for Friday’s forecast hot weather in South Australia and Victoria prompts a quick look at what’s changed in the forecast that would prompt this action.
Factors contributing to an unforeseen price spike in NSW at 16:15 on Thursday 31st January 2019
Taking a brief (well, actually longer than intended) look into the various factors that delivered a price spike above $10,000/MWh on Thursday 31st January in NSW – and thinking through the implications for one particular Demand Response client, and for the broader market.
New all-time record for electricity demand in Queensland on Wednesday 13th February 2019
The Queensland region of the NEM saw a new all-time record for peak electricity demand today (Wed 13th February 2019) by several different measures. A bit later in the evening we take a brief look at a few different factors.
Very preliminary review of Quantity and Quality of Rebids suggests some interesting details…
As part of the process of compilation of our Generator Report Card 2018, we’re delving into quite some detail into various aspects of generator bidding and re-bidding. Today I thought it might be useful to share some *very early and preliminary* observations that we’re starting to see when trending and categorising rebids.
Looks set for a peak demand in QLD on Wednesday up near the all-time maximum
Currently (as at Monday morning 11th February) AEMO forecasts indicate that Queensland electricity demand on Wednesday afternoon will come very close to an all-time record.
AGL Investor Presentation reports on Portfolio Availability–we take a look for key Stations
AGL released its investor presentation yesterday – several people flagged the availability stats within the presentation (they knew we were looking at aspects of reliability for our Generator Report Card 2018). Hence I take a brief detour and have a quick look.
2018 – the year fossil fuels began an inexorable decline
Guest author, Tristan Edis, takes a look at the changing pattern of generation by fuel type in 2018
Two points about the high demand & prices, and the load shedding, on Friday 25th January 2019
Two quick notes about what happened in Victoria on Friday 25th January 2019 following conversations with a number of people.
The north Queensland deluge cuts solar production
A quick look at the effect that the monsoonal rains in northern Queensland are having on several power generation options in northern Queensland.
Looking backwards over the past 2 weeks in the NEM
Back at work this week and (with curiosity getting the better of me) I have another look at what happened last Thursday and Friday in the South Australian and Victorian regions of the NEM.