A quick article with the unfolding situation this afternoon in Victoria – tight supply/demand balance, price spike to the Market Price Cap, and RERT negotiations ….
A short note looking at forecast for Victoria today, Monday 30th December (coincidentally as Loy Yang A2 came offline on Friday evening).
With the return of Mortlake unit 2 this week, we take a quick look at current forecasts for the week and quarter ahead in Victoria.
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
Merry Christmas to Innogy, with first operations seen at the first phase of the Limondale Solar Farm
Noticed that Loy Yang A2 is back online today, so worth a short note.
In what seems (to me) to be an extraordinary measure, AEMO speaks directly to the operators of Wind and Solar assets in the NEM, asking them to update the AEMO on the high-temperature limitations of their plant. How did it come to this?…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
With Queensland temperatures (even at the Brisbane airport) exceeding 40 degrees Celcius today, the electricity demand was also high – though still below the all-time record.
The spot price in Queensland spiked above $1,400 for the first time of the summer on Monday afternoon
Today’s guest author, Ben Willacy, examines current trends in commisioning activity and new grid connections for new supplies in the NEM.
42 months after I posted some initial thoughts about “the opacity of rooftop PV” it seems that – when viewed in certain ways, discussed here – the problem is actually getting worse, not better.
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
Guest author, Tom Geiser, discusses the different approaches to loss factors amid recent market proposals.
Guest author, Warwick Foster, discusses the different methods in which generators may hedge in the NEM
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we’ll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies this summer, especially in the Victorian region.