High temperatures (and high demand) forecast for QLD this Friday


On Monday I noted this Market Notice from AEMO in a copy of our NEM-Watch software warning of high demand forecast for the Queensland region this Friday:

2018-12-17-at-09-59-NEMwatch-MarketNotice-extremeQLDfriday

Worth noting that the reason for the Market Notice is that the high temperatures:

  • Not only drive electricity demand higher; but
  • Also impact capability of supply-side infrastructure (incl generators) a number of ways…

– hence a “double whammy” effect that makes AEMO’s job of balancing supply and demand trickier.  In the Market Notice they ask the operators of major power stations to be mindful of the temperature effects on the capability of their assets.

We’ll be having a more detailed look at how all individual power stations have performed over time, NEM-wide, in our Generator Report Card 2018.

Since that time, I have been keeping an eye on the forecasts (clients can also keep an eye online here) as they have progressively changed, though the demand forecast has remained stubbornly high.  Current forecast for Operational Demand* to peak up at 9,420MW in the half-hour ending 17:00 in Queensland as shown here:

2018-12-19-ez2view-trendedQLDfor14days

A couple external prompts this evening have prompted this quick article (apologies for errors/omissions in the rush).

It’s a slightly different measure of demand (read here for the gory details of all the different measures of demand) but the “Forecast Convergence” widget in the installed ez2view software can provide a view of how AEMO’s successive demand forecasts have been changing.

2018-12-19-at-17-15-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-QLDdemand

In theory, AEMO’s forecasts should be getting more accurate as we get closer to real time (though the reality is that the weather patterns will also be changing as well) – hence it is of interest to see that the colours are growing redder as we look up the vertical for Friday afternoon/evening.  In other words, the demand forecast has been increasing.

Now, it’s not demand that we are most interested in – but rather the balance between supply and demand.  Flipping Forecast Convergence to look at Surplus Generation (in this case with lower numbers being redder) we see that the forecast is for it to be low (compared to the rest of the week), but some improvement on the forecasts made on Tuesday afternoon/evening:

2018-12-19-at-17-15-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-QLDsurplus

That’s all for now…

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Oh, and a brief PS – those who follow me on LinkedIn or Twitter will note that I’ve posted a couple updates (like those linked there) about the central-to-south constraint binding within the Queensland region a fair amount these days (of course, ez2view clients can see it for themselves).

Sadly, we hear that this is one of those constraints that, it seems, new entrants thought would not be affecting them.  Back in the real world, however, this constraint is having the effect of winding down output of all of the Scheduled and Semi-Scheduled plant north of Gladstone.

If that constraint happens to bind on Friday afternoon/evening, will make an “interesting” situation for the AEMO even more challenging…

 

 

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

2 Comments on "High temperatures (and high demand) forecast for QLD this Friday"

  1. It will be interesting to see if this forecast holds. It is the Friday before the Christmas break, and historically, a lot of industry (both heavy and light) closes up shop at midday and opens the beer fridge. I am not sure if AEMO models beer fridge loadings correctly. Further, the numerical weather forecasts from BoM ACCESS-C and ECMWF have the sea breeze front pushing in somewhat deeper across metro areas of Brisbane, Sunshine, and Gold Coasts. By 1600hr (time of forecast peak demand) the sea breeze is starting to push past Brisbane’s western suburbs. Finally, there is a vigorous south east change moving through, and by 1700 it is forecast to be sitting in a line from Southport through to Boonah. Shrug. If AEMO forecasts do hold, then we could see some amazing system loads if there is a hot spell in February. (Isn’t the electricity industry supposed to be in a death spiral?)

  2. Wow, look at that, 9602MW @ 16:25. And on a Friday afternoon that is part of the Christmas shutdown. I wonder how much the cloud band coming across Brisbane contribute to this peak. For example, the western facing bank of my PV system rolled back from 2462W @ 16:13 to 445W @ 16:18, all in the space of five minutes. (No way I was turning down my air conditioners.)

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