So early in summer, will Queensland set a new record for peak demand?


The news media, including the image captured here from the Fairfax Media title, is highlighting high temperatures forecast for Brisbane, and elsewhere, this week:

2016-11-29-hotweather-brisbane

As can be seen, Friday and Saturday (in particular) are forecast to be a bit of a stinker (with the heat, coupled with the normal humidity).  It’s Friday we’re more interested in.

Given our keen interest in the the electricity sector (and particularly a keen interest in what peak summer demand will be over many prior summers*) I had a quick look at one of the older views of AEMO forecast data within the ez2view energy sector browser, and see the AEMO forecasting demand to peak above 9,000MW this Friday, even in just the 50% POE case:

2016-11-29-at-13-45-ez2view-STPASA-demandforecastQLD

The level forecast here for Friday would be up very close to the new all-time record maximum set on Monday 1st February 2016 as noted the day after.

Obviously what the actual demand ends up being will be a result of a number of semi-independent factors, including:
(a)  How high the temperature (and humidity) reaches, and whether there is a storm change that day;
(b)  Cloud cover, and the impact this will have on the large amount of solar PV in the state – particularly in the south-east corner, including my own little power station (though solar will be rapidly declining that late in the day); and
(c)  Any instances of price-induced demand response in the region (it’s fair to assume that prices might be bouncing around a bit on the day).

All interested parties can keep an eye on what’s unfolding in terms of consumption this summer through this ECA-sponsored Electricity Consumption widget, which we released during 2016.  No charge for that one, thanks to the ECA’s sponsorship.  Feel free to embed on your own website.


*  note for our keen competition enterers, not sure we’ll have time to run the competition this summer, unfortunately – just too many other things to get done through the summer/Q1 period, including:
(a)  Our work in the battery storage space, including new releases following on from our Battery Finder™ Widget; and
(b)  A new version of NEM-Review (which our clients are already starting to use in early beta form).
(c)  Plus more to announce in 2017…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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