[posted at 15:10 NEM time]
Following on from Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th January, it was not much of a surprise to see (this morning) the AEMO issue another Lack of Reserve notice for the Victorian region for later this afternoon – again sent in automatically with Local Alarms set in a display copy of NEM-Watch running in our office.
The text of message published at 09:43 (NEM time) was as follows:
Notice ID 44617
Notice Type ID RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Thursday, 16 January 2014
External Reference PDPASA Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Victoria Region 16 January 2014.
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
PDPASA Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Victoria Region 16 January 2014. AEMO declares a LOR2 condition for the Victoria Region. From 1400 hrs to 1630 hrs 16 January 2014
The contingency capacity reserve required is 500 MW The minimum reserve available is 260 MW
AEMO is seeking a market response.
[A LOR2 notice means that there’s forecast to be just enough available supply to meet demand – except if a large unit should trip, or an interconnector trip, or some other contingency. So it’s not as serious as the one issued yesterday]
We saw this morning that the demand peak forecast for this afternoon followed the same pattern as Tuesday and Wednesday – with the forecast NEM-wide demand being even higher than that experienced in the previous couple of days – as shown in this snapshot of 09:00 from NEM-Watch:
In a piece of good news, we noted that Unit 3 at Loy Yang A returned to service this morning, as shown here in this snapshot at the same time from ez2view in Time Travel mode (return to service was slightly earlier):
The outage at Loy Yang A, and also a unit out at Pelican Point (oops – Torrens Island!), had contributed to the tight supply/demand balance – which was then compounded by the lack of wind. This created upward pressure on prices, hence encouraging some Demand Side Response.
Today we see that (as above) all four units are running at Loy Yang A, and all eight at Pelican Point (oops – Torrens Island!) – plus the wind is contributing in South Australia (less so in Victoria). What this means is that (as shown in this updated snapshot from NEM-Watch at 14:50) the price spikes that were forecast earlier have been revised downwards:
Incidentally, the view of the NEM at this time shows Victorian demand approaching on the all-time record, which was set just before Black Saturday in summer 2008-09.
It may be that, in the absence of a price signal to incentivise significant demand side response this afternoon (unlike yesterday), we see the demand continue to climb this afternoon to set a new record.
Let’s check back later to see what happened…