The heatwave promises to return next week


With the NEM having already experienced one cycle of heatwave that passed through South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and then Queensland over the past couple of weeks, we see that a similar pattern looks set to return:

Tweet from ABC Emergency about the heatwave returning

Delving into the detail of AEMO’s ST PASA forecast for next week, and looking at the Victorian region in ez2viewAustralia, we see that the demand forecast for the Victorian region on Thursday 16th (next week), when some weather forecasters are estimating 42 degrees in Melbourne, we see a demand peak – under the 50% POE (probability of exceedance) forecast – has increased significantly in the AEMO’s 2pm forecast today, compared with the one from 6pm yesterday.

2014-01-10-at-14-50-STPASA-VIC-demand50-forecast-increases

As a result, the amount of surplus capacity forecast (whilst still a healthy margin, with the lowest being 744MW) is at the low-point of the current forecast for the week, and is lower than was forecast yesterday evening.

Promises to be an interesting summer…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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