Load shed warning (LOR3) issued by AEMO for Tuesday in South Australia


An email alert triggered from a display copy of NEM-Watch we have running continually in the office alerted us to the forecast LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) condition for this Tuesday in South Australia:

Forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in South Australia on Tuesday

In NEM-Watch we can see that the predispatch forecast for Monday in South Australia is currently for a tight supply-demand balance, and so prices up near the Market Price Cap for a number of hours:

2013-06-02-at-20-10-NEM-Watch-forecast-LOR3-in-SA

Looking further into the future, with the ST PASA view in ez2view we can see that Tuesday (and subsequent days) is forecast to show negative surplus reserve in South Australia, and that this forecast has grown worse over the past 10 hours:

2013-06-02-at-20-15-ez2view-showing-negative-surplus-capacity-in-ST-PASA

As noted in their Market Notice, AEMO is seeking a market response to ensure that the load shedding will not be required – will be very interesting to see what eventuates!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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