… so who won the competition for summer 2011-12 as “Best Demand Forecaster”


As noted yesterday, the demand for summer 2011-12 was lacklustre – amounting to a surprisingly small peak demand for the season (30,218MW on 24th February).

With reference to this listing of named entries for our competition (yes, we tried a new policy this time to encourage a different type of competition) we can see that this actual peak was below every single entry we received for the competition.

A key question on many people’s lips is whether the demand dragon has been permanently slain, or if it is just in hibernation, and will roar back to life with the return of El Nino and a bounce in the (non-mining) economy.

However that’s a question for another day…

Today, it’s clear to see that:

1)  In a similar way to to the way that the huge peak demand in summer 2008-09 surpassed everyone’s expectations;

2) The extremely low level of the peak demand in 2011-12 underwhelmed even the most pessimistic predictions.

To us, this is (first and foremost) a reminder of how the game of forecasting the market is a very difficult game to play.  Hence, we can view the prize this year (as it was in summer 2008-09) as a bit of a consolation prize.

We have contacted Aden Fanning, and will be making arrangements for the delivery of his BBQ.  Given that he lives in Brisbane, we’re hopeful of an invitation to sample the first sausages….

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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