VOLL and Lack Of Reserve 2 in SA and High Prices in VIC


More high temperatures in South Australia and Victoria this afternoon have driven the demand and the spot price high.

AEMO issued a market notice forecasting a Lack Of Reserve (LOR) 1 in SA at 5:31 this morning (see the notice here).

At 12:08 AEMO declared an actual LOR1 condition for SA, expected to continue until 17:00 (see the notice here). By 12:40 the price had increased to $500/MWh:
2010-02-09 at 12-40 NEM-Watch

At 13:15 the price jumped to $9999, and the SA demand continued to rise:
2010-02-09 at 13-15 NEM-Watch

At 15:30 the price in Victoria also jumped up over $9000/MWh. The tight supply/demand balance in VIC and SA can be seen in the low (10%) Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) of the VIC + SA “economic island” in this NEM-Watch screenshot:
2010-02-09 at 15-30 NEM-Watch

By 16:25 SA had hit VOLL and the IRPM in SA had dropped to 0% with only 7MW of available generation unused. The demand (3133MW) was just 214MW short of the peak demand for the region:
2010-02-09 at 16-25 NEM-Watch

At 16:36 AEMO declared a LOR2 condition – see the market notice here. A brief explanation of the LOR levels has been included in a previous post – Tight supply-demand balance in SA today!

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