Wednesday 28th January saw demand across the NEM jump to unprecedented levels, setting a new record of 34,843MW at 16:00 NEM time. On Thursday 29th January, we saw the demand increase still further, leading to prices that stayed high for much of the day (to the point where the Cumulative Price Threshold was reached in VIC and SA and price caps were imposed), and a relatively small amount of involuntary load shedding occurring in VIC and SA.
We noted yesterday, in the midst of the excitement, that the previous NEM-wide demand record had been beaten, by virtue of the heatwave assaulting VIC and SA over the day. We spoke too soon, however, as demand continued to climb through the afternoon.
The day is not over yet, but we thought you would be interested in the attached snapshot highlighting the first of the occasions on the day when prices jumped to VOLL in SA and VIC as a result of searing temperatures stopping the tennis, and melting VIC and SA into new demand records for each region.
We watched with interest today as demand crept up in all mainland regions to the point where the NEM-Wide demand rose slightly above 33,000MW for the first time ever, during a summer period.
On 19th January, high prices were sustained in SA for several hours, bringing the Cumulative Price within a whisker of the $150,000 threshold, at which prices would be capped.
Given that the holidays are now over (for most of us) and we’re returning back to “normal” life, we thought it would be a good time to provide a brief overview of what’s happened in terms of NEM-Wide demand, to date.
An overview of the final range of estimates received for the peak demand guessing competition of summer 2008-2009.
NSW experienced a record summer demand on Thursday 15th January, driven by high temperatures across the state. The extreme weather experienced in NSW followed the extreme weather that swept across South Australia and Victoria only two days beforehand.
On the 23rd of July, 2008 one of the HWTS – LYPS 500kV Line was down for maintenance when a second one tripped, leaving only one line remaining. This caused NEMMCO to declare the failure of that remaining line the greatest single contingency in the NEM, causing them to buy large amounts of FCAS from generators.
Just as had been forecast, Tuesday 13th January 2009 saw hot, dry weather roll in across South Australia, and then into Victoria. The high temperatures caused demand to climb, but not to the level at which NEMMCO had forecast demand to climb over the summer period. As a result we saw the price in SA jump to a level near VOLL at 13:40, and remain there until about 18:00 (i.e. more than 4 hours).
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Here we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for September, and take a closer look at the effects of the 2007 drought on this particular month.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of August.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Analysis of July has revealed that the peak NEM-wide demand for the past 3 years has occurred in winter – and has been significantly higher than the peak summer demand.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. June has brought us several cases of “economic witholding of capacity” – particularly in 2002, and in 2007 the NEM had a very interesting week in which the IRPM plunged to its lowest level ever.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – in which we examine the trends in price and demand across the NEM for the month of May.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. Here we present a detailed analysis of prices in each region of the NEM, for the month of April over the past 10 years.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM – covering notable events of March, such as the unforgettable South Australian heatwave of 2008 which caused the Cumulative Price to reach the Cumulative Price Threshold for the first time in our memory.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. February has seen multiple price spikes over the years often as a result of high demand caused by the summer heat, but also during times of surplus available generation capacity.
One of 12 articles on the months past in the NEM. For January we revisit events such as the fires at Moomba in 2004 (which curtailed gas supplies from central Australia); and the blackout on 16th January 2007 which drove the price to VOLL in Victoria.