Monthly Archives: December 2017

Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….

Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.

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Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand

Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors

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Hot weather sees NSW demand at 13,000MW and NEM-wide demand above 31,000MW

A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high

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NSW demand currently forecast to peak up at 13,500MW on Tuesday 19th December

Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).

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Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)

AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.

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“Scheduled Demand” in Victoria stopped short of 8,500MW today (lower than forecast) but the demand peak forecast for NSW tomorrow has grown to almost 13,000MW

Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.

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Hornsdale Power Reserve continues to reach new milestones with a discharge rate of 100 MW today

Hornsdale Power Reserve a.k.a “World’s biggest battery” achieves new milestones – discharged at a rate of 100MW and charged continuously for nearly 3 hours.

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High temperatures to give demand a kick in Victoria tomorrow (Wednesday 13th December)

AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.

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Electricity demand set to climb in NSW on Thursday with the hot weather forecast

With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.

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AEMO updates generator combinations for SA system strength

AEMO has adjusted the formula (i.e. constraint equations) used to manage system strength in South Australia, which has been (since mid-2017) by constraining down the output of wind farms under certain conditions.

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