Summer 2016-17 in the NEM

Articles relating to what happens across the NEM through summer 2016-17

Articles

EnerNOC seems to have grossly under-represented the amount of Demand Response active in the NEM

The level of Demand Response currently active in Australia's National Electricity Market is higher than some are estimating.

Small solar owners saved the NSW electricity market $888 million during heatwave

New South Wales recently experienced a severe heatwave, which saw parts of the state exceed 45°C. During this three day period, small solar PV (i.e. PV systems that are not registered as generators in the NEM), generated about 17 GWh of power.

How tight demand/supply situations can make solar forecasting important

NSW demand rose to a near-record high on Friday the 10th of February, and QLD soared to a new record demand on that Sunday, amidst an intense heatwave. While this heat-stressed our electricity markets and infrastructure, the nation’s rooftop solar PV systems were providing critical load reduction under plentiful sunshine.

Five fixes for the NEM

Load shedding in South Australia on Wednesday 8 February and successive ‘close shaves’ in NSW and Queensland as the heatwave spread north have exposed serious weaknesses in the national electricity market (NEM).

Interesting take, by battery maker Sonnen, on the “free energy” business model

Some brief thoughts on one innovative business model being introduced to the NEM incorporating batteries, demand response, and free energy

Key Events Timeline – NSW Friday 10 Feb 2017

A summary timeline of how last Friday’s “white knuckle ride” in NSW evolved, highlighting key events on the day.

Examining why Pelican Point didn’t bid full capacity into the NEM on Wednesday 8 February

Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding eventuated).

[4th Post] Large and rapid demand drop curtails demand bid for new record in Queensland

Final post for the day - a high demand level achieved, but not an all-time record.

[3rd post] The supply/demand situation in Queensland gets tighter

3rd update today as the supply/demand balance tightens, and a transmission outage adds a complexity

[Post 2] Later AEMO forecasts moderate demand forecasts slightly – but still looks to be massive

Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.

[Post 1] Early AEMO forecasts look towards new record electricity demand in Queensland today

AEMO early morning forecast pointing to a new record electricity demand late this afternoon.

[2nd post] Astonishing Queensland electricity demand - on a Sunday!

An astounding day with Queensland electricity demand on a Sunday - a new peak (according to Powerlink) or not quite (on Dispatch Target basis).

[1st post] AEMO forecasts near-record electricity demand in Queensland – late on a Sunday evening!

Looking forward to this evening, and what looks set to be a near all-time record for QLD demand (a remarkable outcome for a Sunday)

About solar panels (predominantly) facing north, not west

To clarify a quotation today in the Fairfax media about solar PV performance on heatwave Friday in NSW.

[Post 2] Demand climbs and smelter readies to close AGAIN

Unwanted demand response in NSW approaches, for the 2nd day in a row with scorching temperatures driving demand higher.

[Post 1] Not out of the woods yet in NSW on a super-hot Saturday

First (and perhaps only?) post on a super-hot Saturday in NSW

Demand in NSW soars but falls short of setting new record

With many stakeholders nervously looking on this afternoon, demand in NSW peaked at 14,108MW at 5:30pm AEDT.

[4th update] NSW drops under 1,000MW spare capacity

4th update on this white-knuckle day.

[Update 3] NSW Scheduled Demand up past 13,500MW and Reserve Margin drops

Another update, as NSW demand shoots up towards a new all-time record

Early Friday 10th February – forecasts for near-record electricity demand and load shedding in NSW

A quick look into an anticipated stinker of a day in NSW today

AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture

Here's an update on the situation in NSW

Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017

A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.

AEMO forecasts LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW tomorrow–Friday 10th February

... whilst on the topic of load shedding, here's a warning for NSW on Friday afternoon.

Load Shedding occurs in South Australia in heatwave conditions

Deja-vu all over again in South Australia this evening, with load shedding invoked due to climbing (hot-weather fuelled) demand, and insufficient local generation supplies.

Southern NEM demand awakes from slumber

Hot weather in Adelaide and Melbourne driving an interesting outlook for Thursday

The 'other' factors driving price volatility in the NEM

One of the more recent developments we’ve observed in the NEM is the downward trend in gas powered generation, raising concerns as to whether there is more pain to come for east coast industrial consumers.

Overview: NSW & Qld Price Volatility, Monday 6 Feb 2017

Very high demands in NSW and “more of the same” in Queensland saw significant price volatility yesterday, with the two states behaving like one larger NEM region

NSW demand rises above 13,000MW

Demand in New South Wales rose above 13,000MW just after midday today despite a reasonably modest temperature of 28°C in it's capital.

Overview: Queensland volatility 1-2 Feb 2017

A volatile couple of days in Queensland, with demand response evident

Quick Review: $13,800/MWh Queensland spike Mon Jan 30

Quick review of an isolated early morning spike in Queensland

Initial Review: NEM-wide Price Event, Monday 30 Jan 2017

Extremely hot weather in NSW and the NEM’s underappreciated “rail gauge mismatch” contributed to a sharp multi-state price spike during the afternoon peak

Initial Review: $14,000/MWh Spike in Qld, Fri 27 Jan 2017

A look at last Friday’s short sharp price spike in Queensland and why it led to negative settlement residues on the interconnection with NSW

A more forensic look at Queensland Price Volatility on Saturday 14th January 2017

An animated walk through 19 hours of Saturday 14th January 2017 in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market - a day we dubbed "sizzling Saturday" not least because of extreme price volatility

Illustrating how the currently installed rooftop solar PV has reduced peak demand – but more won’t reduce it more**

Looking at 13th, 14th and 15th January and the contribution of solar PV to peak demand reduction

One example of how price spikes in the physical market flow through to the financial market

Illustrating how the price spike on 14th January flowed through to hedge contract prices.

Queensland demand today exceeds the previous all-time record

The Queensland region experienced a new all-time record for electricity demand today, along with some very hot weahter

[UPDATED] NEM-wide demand screams past 34,000MW today

NEM-wide demand roared to life today, for the first time this summer, with hot weather pretty much everywhere.

QLD’s Cumulative Price over half way to the Cumulative Price Threshold after a “sizzling Saturday”

Volatility in Queensland on a sizzling Saturday drives the Cumulative Price more than half-way to the Cumulative Price Threshold (where price caps would be imposed).

… meanwhile, down at Loy Yang A…

A few quick notes about this week's developments at Loy Yang A power station

Queensland demand peaks even higher on Friday – and Reserve Plant Margin is tight

Queensland Scheduled Demand on Friday 13th January peaked even higher than on Thursday 12th January, and only 70MW below the all-time record

Queensland electricity demand surpasses 9000MW in heatwave

Hot weather drives Queensland demand higher than 9,000MW for the first time this summer - even with many people still out on holidays...

Hot weather in NSW drives demand higher

Demand rose in NSW today off the back of some hot weather

Victorian “Scheduled Demand” plunges to its lowest ever* level – early on Monday 2nd January

Victoria saw what seems to be the lowest ever* level of electricity demand early on Monday 2nd January 2017

SA electricity demand at New Year’s exhibiting the “Duck Curve” affliction

New Years Eve and New Years Day have provided 2 excellent examples of the "Duck Curve" in South Australia

What’s going on with Victorian electricity demand?

A question, about why Victorian electricity demand seems to be trending lower and lower...

Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire

Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.

Another day, another “Actual LOR2” Notice for South Australia

Another LOR2 Market Notice issued for South Australia

South Australia islanded from the eastern part of the NEM overnight

South Australia was electrically islanded from the eastern part of the NEM for a number of hours overnight. Here's a quick (early morning) look at some of what happened.

So early in summer, will Queensland set a new record for peak demand?

Head's up for what might be a new record maximum electricity demand on Friday - so early in summer...

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