A collection of some core analytical challenges

A collection of articles speaking to some core analytical challenges.

Others are categorised elsewhere – like my prior thoughts on three reasons why forecasting is a mug’s game.



Analytical Challenge - In a complex system like the NEM, it's almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome

All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.

Analytical Challenge - remembering that it's impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)

Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.

Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias

Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.

Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”

One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".

Analytical Challenge - keeping an open mind to positions expressed by a broad range of people

"Incumbency" seems to have become a pejorative in the NEM

A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)

Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.

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One response to “A collection of some core analytical challenges”

  1. […] It’s important to understand that, whilst both approaches could work, looking at bid prices offered under one type of dispatch regime and assuming that they would persist under the other is a newbie’s analytical error. […]

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