Only 709MW of spare generation capacity in NSW at 15:40

As predicted by AEMO this morning, another high demand (and high price) day in the NEM – particularly in the NSW region.

Of particular note is this instance (15:40) in NSW, when the Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) for the NSW “Economic Island” dropped to a low of 5.48%  – or, in other terms, only 709MW of spare generation capacity available to serve any outage of generation plant in the region.

This is the reason why AEMO had issued the market notice (shown above and linked here) warning of an actual Lack of Reserve Level 1 for the NSW region.

NEM-Watch calculates 709MW as the difference between the available generation capacity in NSW at 15:40 (13,647MW) and the net demand in NSW not supplied by imports from VIC and QLD (12,938MW, which is 14,445MW – 1036MW – 202MW – 269MW).  In this case the interconnectors are constrained and hence it is not possible (under normal market operation) for them to transfer any more power into NSW in this dispatch interval.