Long-Term Market trends and forecasts

As we have the time, we’ll provide some commentary here about the methods used by the various bodies for “long term” (which in the NEM means 10-years, typically)  forecasting.

Where they don’t fit elsewhere, we’ll also put articles here looking at longer-term trends in the historical data.

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Articles

Where is the east coast domgas development boom?

When markets operate normally, a sharp rise in the price of any commodity triggers a boom in exploration, development and new supply. But this is not seeming to happen in response to high domestic gas prices. In this article, guest author (Graeme Bethune) examines why.

Barcaldine Solar Farm output – and the audacious 50% by 2030 renewables ambition

A quick look at first output of Barcaldine Solar Farm - as a segue into consideration of what we see as an "audacious" 50% by 2030 ambition.

Forecasting is a Mug’s Game

The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling

AEMO notes low reserve conditions for SA (this summer and next) and in Victoria (next summer)

After an AEMO notice of Low Reserve Condition this summer and next in the south, I had a quick look...

A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)

Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.

Note - we see the "Energy Transition" as very broad

Quick note about energy transition

Win, lose or draw: Three scenarios for the electricity system in 2030

Cast your mind back 15 years to 2016. You probably don’t remember this, but 15 years ago people still debated whether the growth of distributed energy would fundamentally transform the Australian electricity system.

What happens when energy is free?

One scenario holds that the price of energy supply might drop to the point where it is effectively free. Here's some of what we're thinking about...

Failure to satisfy the LRET – Prospects and Implications

Some considerations, posted by guest author Andrew George, about the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Target Scheme

A further look at the idiosyncrasies of wind in South Australia

Some further analysis of different aspects of wind farm output in South Australia

The RET Joyride

Yesterday evening the revised RET legislation passed the upper house. Today guest author (Miles Prosser) provides recollections of the twists and turns in the policy landscape of Australia's Renewable Energy Target over the course of the past 10 years.

Recapping Australia’s SolarCoaster Ride

Nigel Morris talks through his recent presentation at the EUAA forum in Brisbane about the ups and downs of Australia's "solarcoaster" ride

The NEM reaches Peak Gas

Following from several earlier articles, Core Energy provides their view of the future of gas use in power generation

Factors contributing to declining demand during 2014

Some analysis performed by one of our guest authors (Ric Brazzale) identifying the significant factors that contributed to declining demand in the NEM through 2014.

Peak summer demand in Tasmania has been consistent (but AEMO’s forecasts vary)

A few quick pointers (on New Year's Eve) about where peak demand might land this summer in Tasmania - so you have a chance at winning Competition #6

Trends in wind output (tips to help you make your entry)

A quick look at how aggregate wind farm output has trended, over the history of the NEM

Electricity demand largely chugs along – whilst “the race stops the nation”

A quick look at what a four-legged horse race does to electricity demand

An illustration of increasing generation oversupply in the National Electricity Market

To augment today's article in the Australian Financial Review, here's an illustration of the growing oversupply.

Incumbent Retailers under siege on both sides

Several things we've noticed about what's been changing in the electricity retail landscape in Australia's electricity markets.

Who are the biggest carbon emitters, in the National Electricity Market?

Some analysis of carbon emissions for large generation portfolios in the NEM, and comparison with prior post about wind production levels.

Is AGL Energy actually the NEM’s greenest generator?

A different look at the numbers suggests that AGL Energy does have some green credentials...

… so what would the similar trend look like for the (larger) AGL

Following last week's analysis of EnergyAustralia's larger portfolio we do the same thing for AGL Energy (including Macquarie Generation)

Volumes and revenues crunched by oversupply

Following the article in the FinReview today about EnergyAustralia...

Behind all the buzz about Solar PV…

Some thoughts about solar PV, and energy efficiency, and the effects they seem to be producing at home.

A few thoughts on the RET Review process

Some assorted thoughts about the RET, and the RET Review process currently underway

Three Possible Business Models for Distributed Storage

GSES recently gave a presentation at the APVI workshop in Brisbane as part of the International Battery Association conference.

The content of the presentation would be of interest to WattClarity readers, hence this guest post - which focuses on three possible future business models, that would mean very different outcomes to the incumbents that have become accustomed to "business as usual" over many years.

One left-of-field option for generator rationalisation

A thought-bubble, triggered by the recent knock-back at the ACCC of AGL's bid to acquire Macquarie Generation

The continuing change in the NEM landscape

Second article by Paul Taliangis (of Core Energy) looking at some of the broader changes at work in the NEM.

We are on track to meet the STC target so why hasn’t the Clearing House worked?

Some observations about where the market for STCs seems headed, following my presentation at All Energy earlier in October.

The changing role of gas in the NEM

A few thoughts from another guest commentator (Paul Taliangis @ Core Energy) about where gas-fired generation volumes look set to go.

The NEM might support 37% energy supplied from wind – but it would still require at least 21GW of non-wind capacity on standby

A hypothetical case of what production patterns from wind might look like through a year with increased installed capacity of wind farms.

Aggregate wind farm output growing, but intermittency still remains

A more detailed look at how the percentage of energy supplied in the NEM from wind has risen to be 3.5% on an annual basis - though the degree of indeterminacy continues to be significant despite the growing diversification of wind farm sites.

Performance of wind farms, to date in 2013

Here's a view of how daily wind farm production (by region, and NEM-wide) has trended over the 2013 calendar year to date - the correlation of output on a daily basis, and the contribution towards regional and NEM-wide demand

Long-term trend shows coal being crunched

A chart and a table presented today at FutureGAS highlighting how the dominance of coal in power generation across the NEM is starting to shift.

How has Demand Diversity changed, over 15 summers?

Some analysis of the extent to which Demand Diversity (the degree to which peak demands in each region occur at different times) has changed in 15 years. If there are changes, it could be a factor at play in why peak demand has been changing.

A more detailed look at how demand has trended over 15 summers in the NEM

A longer-term look at how summer (peak and average) demand has trended over the 15 years of NEM history to date.

To what extent is Wind reducing spot prices in South Australia?

Some starting thoughts, about the extent to which increased wind farm output has been responsible in the drop in spot prices in South Australia from the high levels seen in 2008.

Trends in Production and Spot Revenues at 4 coal-fired stations

A number of recently announced closures of (and cut-backs in) a variety of coal-fired power station units across the NEM (including Northern, Yallourn, Munmorah and Tarong) - claimed to be a result of carbon pricing - generated significant interest in the press, and interested us to open NEM-Review and have a look at longer term trends, and the extent to which that attribution might be true.

Liquidity of futures trading in Australia’s National Electricity Market

A look at the trend towards deeper liquidity of trading of electricity derivatives in Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM).

Trends in power station output by fuel type

Some observations about the longer-term trend of electricity production, across the NEM, aggregated across all states by fuel type. This reveals some of the trends that have been developing in recent years prior to the introduction of the carbon tax.

Hydro generation increases with La Nina

An article recently in one of the main papers about increased flows down the Snowy River prompted the question, internally, about how much the La Nina pattern of the past 24 months had impacted on production volumes from the hydro facilities around the NEM.

A 30-year historical window presents a different picture of demand

Including more than a decade of data for Queensland's peak electricity demand (pre-NEM) reveals a more nuanced picture.

Has the demand pattern been different on a regional basis?

Extending our analysis of the pattern of demand growth (NEM-Wide) to see if the pattern has been the same at a regional level.

Some possible reasons why demand is declining

A list of 10 factors that are impacting on electricity consumption across the National Electricity Market.

How is demand changing in the NEM?

Further analysis of the way that electricity demand patterns (NEM-wide) are changing in Australia's National Electricity Market

Another look at Declining Energy Consumption in the NEM

Prompted by Ben Skinner's question, we've had a bit more of a look at demand patterns in the NEM (NEM-wide).

A decline in energy volumes generated in the NEM

Some observations about where average demand in the NEM has trended over the 12 years of NEM history, following the work done in compiling the 2011 Issue of the "Power Trading Schematic" Market Map.

Initial Thoughts about the AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) for 2009

Some initial, scattered, thoughts (late on the day of its launch) about the AEMO's first production of the Electricity Statement of Opportunities for 2009

NSW winter peak demand forecasts

Our Managing Director spoke at the "Australian Energy & Utility Summit 08" in

Sydney on Tuesday 22nd July 2008, touching on a number of issues including the nature of peak demand forecasts (for winter in the NSW region) over the coming 10 years

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