Articles

Tight supply/demand balance forecast for SA, VIC and TAS on Thursday and Friday

With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…

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Friday 12th January saw high instantaneous wind output in South Australia (but not quite a new record)

Prompted by a tweet referencing our RenewEconomy-sponsored NEMwatch Widget, we have a quick look at all-time peak instantaneous aggregate wind output in South Australia

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Hot in Queensland today (Saturday 13th January 2018 with high demand, and volatility) but hotter still tomorrow

A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.

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A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand

AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.

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It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!

Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.

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Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….

Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.

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Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand

Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors

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Hot weather sees NSW demand at 13,000MW and NEM-wide demand above 31,000MW

A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high

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NSW demand currently forecast to peak up at 13,500MW on Tuesday 19th December

Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).

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Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)

AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.

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