Actual lack of reserve level 2 on Friday 19th December 2025 in NSW
The minimum reserve available is projected to be 664 MW between 16:00 and 17:00.
All Posts
… but then the cooler change arrived in NSW, on Friday afternoon 19th December 2025
At 14:55 we note the temperature’s dropped markedly in and around Sydney, and the demand growth has abated as well…
NSW ‘Market Demand’ past 12,000MW … how high will it go (on Friday 19th December 2025)?
At 13:45 (NEM time) on Friday 19th December 2025 we see the NSW demand climbing higher and more quickly than forecasts ... how high will it go?
Was cloud cover the driver of the steep increase in ‘Market Demand’ at lunchtime in NSW on Friday 19th December 2025?
Wondering if unforeseen cloud cover might have been a trigger for the steep rise in 'Market Demand' at lunchtime Friday 19th December 2025.
Lunchtime volatility in NSW on Friday 19th December 2025
A quick snapshot from NEMwatch at 12:30 (NEM time) on Friday 19th December 2025, to mark an earlier-than-forecast arrival of prices above $1,000/MWh.
Spot price elevated already Friday morning 19th December 2025 in a very hot NSW
A quick note with a snapshot from NEMwatch at 10:55 (NEM time) on Friday 19th December 2025 to record some elevated prices that we’ve seen already this morning.
Violation of the ‘N>MPWW_94T_71’ constraint equation, on Friday 19th December 2025
A short note to highlight the ‘N>MPWW_94T_71’ constraint equation, which is violating in the 09:55 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 19th December 2025.
Bayswater unit 2 returning to service, albeit later than expected, on Friday 19th December 2025
Bayswater unit 2 is in the process of returning to service on Friday morning 19th December 2025.
Looking ahead to Friday afternoon/evening 19th December 2025 in NSW
At 07:55 NEM time on Friday 19th December 2025 we take a look towards this afternoon/evening.
That’s a wrap, on Thursday evening 18th December 2025
Wrapping up a series of articles on Thursday 18th December 2025 with this NEMwatch snapshot at 19:35 (NEM time).
Guest Authored Posts
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
What the hail is happening with Brisbane’s weather?
Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch explains the climate drivers behind Southeast Queensland’s unusually intense 2025 hail season — context that matters for those tracking how extreme weather is evolving and influencing the energy market.
Detailed Analysis
The long-term trend of forecast errors for daily peak demand in QLD over the past seven summers
A look at how AEMO’s short-term forecasts have performed at the daily peak in Queensland over the past seven summers — and how that performance is changing as rooftop PV grows.
One example of why some batteries were charging during price spikes over the past couple of days in NSW
This article looks at the N::N_CNLT_2 transient stability constraint on Tuesday to give an example of why some NSW batteries ended up charging through Tuesday’s price spike.
Extending the tabulated history of significant (Frequency and/or AggROT) events into 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4
An update of earlier article (from 8th Sept 2025) comparing Frequency Excursions with instances of large AggROT across Semi-Scheduled units - for 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 (ytd).
A case study into reserve uncertainty during peak demand events in the NEM
A summary of a recent academic case study looking into the events of January 22, 2024 in the QLD region, revealing how DER dynamics, weather variability and forecast limitations are amplifying operational challenges.
Are CIS-ters doin’ it for themselves? Part 4: Policy lessons highlighted by the Nelson Review
In the final part of our four-part CIS series, we zoom out to examine what government-backed Contract-for-Difference schemes are really achieving — drawing on policy lessons from the Nelson Review.
The ENTSO-E ‘Factual Report’ on ‘Grid Incident in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025’ is out
Some of our readers will be interested to note that the Factual Report into the ‘Grid Incident in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025’ was released on 3rd October 2025.
Are CIS-ters doin’ it for themselves? Part 3: Treatment of curtailment risk
In part three in this series about the CIS, we look at how a curtailment provision — briefly included in drafts for Tender 1 but later removed — may raise questions about how revenue...
Are CIS-ters doin’ it for themselves? Part 2: Understanding why there are delivery challenges
In part two of this four part series about the success of the CIS so far, we explore why delivery challenges may have emerged.